Three depressing thoughts.
Three thoughts to start the week – they concern Iran, Turkey and Ireland – and the world becoming more dangerous.
First to Iran.
When one’s own governmant carries out a violent deed you want deep down to supprt them. Surely, you think, they will have done their due diligence; they will have tested all options and used real expert adivisors; they will have manifest right on their side. That is what most americans will be feeling at the recent assasination by their administration in Iran. But the rest of the world, especially the Russians, the Chinese and the Europeans do not see it this way. For them this was all started by the White House reneging on the Nuclear Accord, then built by the imposition of American sanctions which led inexorably to a further escalation as a proud Iran refused to buckle under the threats of the White House. We, together with the militant government of Israel, had already used a cyber attack to blow up the Natanz nuclear site. Today our allies and much of the Middle East see the killing of General Suleiman as a diplomatic aberration and self created crisis of our own making, one for which we have as yet made no credible explanation – let aone justification. Expect to see escalating tensions in the Middle East.
Next to Turkey.
President Erdogan is taking advantage of the Iran “noise” to strengthen his intrusion into Libya in support of its fragile government. “Coordination and training” is the customary cover most in favour by Russian, American or any other invading force seeking to explain its surprising presence. In this case the “trainers” appear to be a mixed air, land and sea force including commandos and supported by nearby frigates and submarines – so much for “training”. Expect to see a steady escalation of Turkey’s role in Libya and in the oil fields of the Adriatic.
Thirdly to Ireland.
A brilliant in depth article in the Sunday Times descibes how fragile is the accord between the Protestants, who want to remain part of the UK and the catholics who want an independent Ireland. The terrible walls still stand that divide society – there are more than 100 in Belfast alone. Pubs and shops are divided, school are too on religious grounds all with different readings of history. The sectarian tensions “roiling since the 17th century”, the 20th century partition and the Good Friday agreement did little but create a short term plaster to cover the wounds of nearly 4000 terrorist killings – true reconciliation is a world away. Expect Ireland to be the big issue for Boris Johnson outside his focus on reawakening the British economy.
Have a good day, James