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Keep a watch on Turkey.

Turkey hs always been relatively disregarded, off the corner of the map, not really in Europe, nor yet in Asia, nor quite in North Africa. In reality that is what makes it so special. It is the three way crossroads for three entirely different continents, cultures and economies. We should watch it closely and we should be worried. Turkey could very well be the next black swan event.

In continental or geopolitical terms, it holds the doorway to Russia to its east, to North Africa to its south and to the European democracies to its west. In cultural terms its President is following the demagog playbook in building an exclusive and fundamentalist Islamic society. Erdogan has already outlawed an independent judiciary and free press. In economic terms with its currency rapidly losing value and desperate for its own sources of oil, it has taken sides with Libya against Russia and is claiming the oil rights in the Aegean Sea against the claims of Greece. 

Over the weekend, Turkey added to its military presence in Syria, North Africa’s go to battle ground for idle despots. It has sent a reported 12000 troops into the war zone. Meanwhile Russia has responded by playing major league military games on its Caucasus border with Turkey.

Keep an eye on Turkey, this is a potential black swan.

Have a good day, James