“There are more things in heaven and earth than are dreamt in your philosphy”
The President capriciously said he liked tariff wars – “they are easy to win”. Well this war with the other economic super power and developed conomies is proving more complex than he could imagine – he is in over his head.
Here are some of the “undreamt” outcomes of his limited “philosophy”:
– The supply chains that made possible global and technological growth have been threatened.
– The economies of supplier nations, able to contribute to part of the whole have been threatened.
– Little America populism is denying concerted action on the pressing global challenges of the day – climate change, poverty, education and health care.
– The US, through the disgracefully leaden footed approach of Trump, Pompeo, Bolton and the rest of the leadership team, have lost the trust of the world.
Already the farmers have suffered. Yesterday, as companies wrestle with the trade war between the US and the rest, the Institute of Supply reported its Manufacturing Purchasing Index (PMI) as contracting to its lowest point in three years. This morning the Bank of America and Bloomberg cut their forecasts for Chinese growth in 2020 to 5.7%. It is China that has been the world’s engine for economic growth.
The confused and stumbling incompetence of the US leadership has created a swamp of indecision, emotion and self harm where there should be clarity, rationality and long term understanding. So far the power of the consumer here is holding the economy together, but this conviction will wane as the gnawing realisation takes hold that we are led by “Know nothings” whose “philosophy” is inadequate to the task in hand.
Invest sparingly – US centric stocks, gold, sell Europe, sell the UK, sell China.
Have a good day, James