Boris is not losing yet.
Political influence is ultimately about how it plays out with the voters and despite the press writing PM Johnson’s obituary, they may be a tad too eager – he’s not losing yet.
I suggested a week ago (Thought for Monday of 09.06. 2019) Johnson’s end game was less directly to do with Brexit or indeed the future of Britain, so much as manoevering the mess of British politics into enabling him to win decisively at the next election.
Since then he has lost votes in the House, is facing 3 court challenges, and he has sacked 21 members from the party. In the midst of all this he has prorogued parliament and continues to loudly claim his unshakeable support for leaving the E.U.
This might seem to bespeak failure – but I am not so sure:
– there has been no concerted backlash from the 21. They amounted to little more than a group of tiresomely antagonistic lightweights, and the PM wants a loyal party – no backsliding when he goes to the country;
– they will be replaced by team players in time for the election and the 21 new “Independants” will be cut adrift into no man’s land. Few ever make it back from there.
– meanwhile prorogation upped the ante big time. Johnson has effectively challenged everyone to put up or shut up. The labor opposition is in disarray, Corbyn – aka the chlorinated chicken – looking daily less PM material and less and less the political partner for the Scottish desperate to stay in the E.U.
So the British PM will get his Queen’s speech on October 14, have a nation-rallying opportunity at the autumn conferences before calling the election as the strong man of current British politics and the sole single minded champion of sovereignty and independence from Europe – just the message his party faithful want to hear, and I suspect a growing number of the unthinking public too.
It is devious, it is cynical, and it has little to do with Britain’s future – it may well work.
But – keep selling Britain and Europe.
Have a good day, James