Trump runs out of Time.
The White House has made two major foreign policy mistakes.
In the first place it has opened a Pandora’s Box of potential calamity by glibly thinking that China, Europe, Iran, North Korea, and our own continental neighbours would react with warmth, understanding and generosity to US bully boy tariffs on trade.
The stock market and GDP are stuck in a band influenced by the usual performance indicators but more than ever influenced by the on off progress of the squabbles, debates and negotiations now being held with a broad range of sovereign nations. None of these negotiations is more precarious or of greater significance than those with China.
A whole hearted agreement would lift the stock market and GDP to new levels. Apple would do well. The President could boast his economic genius and he might win re- election.
But, I tell you now, there will be no new level of agreement and no re-election.
The President has lost international trust with nations that are in many respects larger and more developed than we. Europe’s population is 520 million, China’s is 1.4 billion – our is only 320 million. These nations furthermore grow upon the soil of proud histories. China like the UK has been a superpower before; more it is the only one to have done so not once but twice already.
Trump’s second mistake has been bad timing – and that has completed the strategic opening for the Chinese.
The President has barely a year before the 2020 elections. He needs to juice “his economy” now. It looks likely to undershoot 1% over the next 18 months – hence his frantic efforts to cajole the FED into reducing interest rates to zero. His dreadful presidency has won him no new support and failing to get an “agreement” with the Chinese will doom him to defeat and the prospect of facing the New York courts.
Eventually you get what you earn.
China’s strategy is gift wrapped on a silver platter – keep zigzagging around a hardball core, wait out the untrustworthy President in anticipation of a better and more worthy adversary in 2020.
Trump has run out of time.
Have a good day, James