In a bad place.
Who will win the trade wars with China, Canada and Europe? It may well be the US but we can already make dome imortant conclusions today about the way the “war” has been fought.
1. The US premise is flawed. Despite all the US bluster all the former allies believe thatdecades of trade discussions have worked. Total trade in all three instances is in ballance. it is, for example, no where near the $400bn deficit Trump claims with China. That figure relates to the trade in goods and ignores the trade of US subsidiaries based in china and selling into China. it also ignores all the US Services sold into China. in fact the full trade figure shows a small surplus in favour of the US. The story is similar for Europe and Canada.
2. The US style increases risk. The brutal and foghorn approach increases risk to an unacceptable level:
– Competitors will want to demonstrate to their electorate that they are not surrendering – so they must retaliate.
– Former friends interpret the White House as reverting to its historic US isolationist stance and are allready creating new trade arrangements of their own without the US.
– The white House tactics do nothing to address the fundamental challenges we face today – an improved global standard of living, collaboration to deal with the real global challenge of climate change, or the emergence of increasingly polarised despots in many countries.
The White House is in a bad place despite and it seems determined to stay there.
Have a good day, James