Europe is splitting over how to cope with excessive debt and how to deal with immigration. Both issues are front and centre in the Eastern Nations and in Greece, Turkey and Italy – that is why these nations are most at risk.
But Germany is no less politically divided. Its central issue is immigration. Tomorrow , Sunday, Bavaria goes to the polls in what will be a referendum on Merkel’s liberal policy.
Bavaria is an important bellweather. it has long been a bastion of liberal centralist conservatism – but this may be about to change.
What to look for? How much growth will the ante immigration and europsceptic “Alternative for Germany” (A.I.G) win on the one hand versus the pro EU, liberal Green Party on the other. The Conservatives are likely to win most votes, but not enough to govern alone.
What to expect? Look for a complex consortium around the centralist Conservatives.
At issue is how far Bavaria will turn back to or away from Merkel’s vision of an enriched and cosmopolitan multi racial society. Sunday’s election is a bellweather for the rest of Europe.
* on a lighter note – “Bellweather” originally descibed the lead sheep in a flock, the one with the bell on its neck.
Have a good dat, James.