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Moving backwards to Recession.

Parliament rejected Johnson’s proposals which happily puts him onto the front foot as the all British hero taking on Johnny foreigner – and anyone else for that matter including Parliament, the Supreme Court and the Queen. He is posing as the man to preserve the nation’s sovereign independence and at the same time bolstering credibility with his zenophobic and unthinking followers.

So now we go to October 31, more posturing and then an election which he will win – that is the plan.

Game over? Well, not quite. The economic motor may already be in reverse.

The ineptness of the protagonists have already gummed up the current working of the country as in “who is minding the shop?” It is in addition creating a sheet anchor for investment in the future – as in there is no plan and companies have lost confidence.

After three and a half years of grueling talks, Britain now enters into the far tougher negotiations about a trade deal with their frenemies in europe and with the untrustworthy US. We are embroiled in our charade with China. There is still no trade contract with ink on it, let alone agreement as to how to enforce its conditions should it ever become reality.

So in the UK, the US and in the EU manufacturers, global companies of all sorts, innovators aspiring to create the next breakthrough and factories wanting new technologies and  systems, will all just have to stand aside and wait. They don’t know the rules of the game or where the playing field is, let alone whether it is a level one – and frankly they won’t for some time yet.

Manufacturing does not directly make up as much of the US economy as it does in the EU. But for everyone it is a strong economic multiplier force. It employs many times its own numbers indirectly through services, transport, infrastructure, finance and consumer expenditure. So the UK Prime Minister is thinning the ice on which the future of his economy stands. In the US, as you will recall, the heart of the matter was to defend our technologists from the predatory Chinese. The aim was to provide our boys with a new confidence to invest in advanced systems and to explore new markets for their innovations.

Instead the administration had pulled the rug of confidence from under them.

Are we all walking backwards into a recession?

Despite another set of outstanding results, Atlassian’s share price fell sharply on Friday amid fears that essential corporate tech spending is slowing. That could be the first sign of a new black swan. Watch manufacturing investment, and sell global companies involved in China.  

Have a good day, James.