Three challenges for Boris.
We have been forecasting the Johnson Brexit landslide all year and we were right. His clear, brutally simple, divisive and economically regressive campaign has won the day. But no celebrations. This now is the start of a social and economic war. Johnson faces 3 mighty challenges:
- Now the Ngotiations start – Part 1. Like peeling an onion each step forward is going to reveal the harder ground ahead for an increasingly vulnerable UK trying to achieve a positive exit from an increasingly hostile Europe. It is unlikely this can be done by the end of 2020. So there will be at least a period of chaos – no agreement, no negotiations, no action.
- Now the Negotiations start – Part 2. The Scottish Nationalists have won Scotland – they want independence and they want to stay in Europe. The North of England and the Midlands labour fortresses all have voted this time unexpectedly for Brexit. Their emotional allegiance is temporary at best. They are neither supporters of the Conservatives nor of Johnson. In Northern Ireland the Irish Question has been thrown wide open by the collapse of the DUP. This is a full hand of major league challenges for the new government.
- What will success look like? Britain has not recovered from two world wars, and two financial crashes. Its manufacturing is declining, R&D expenditure is low.The nation has lived on the borrowed memories of Empire and it has never created and implemented a fuly integrated strategy for economic transformation for its own benefit. Today it is a declining mess, shored up by the still vast power of the City of London. That too is threatened – already the banks are moving out and house prices are falling. Johnson used Brexit as a stalking horse for power. Now he has to decide what he wants to do with that power, what he thinks success will look like in 2025 – he needs a plan and quick. Have a good day. James.