The Super power without a brain.
No one knows what has been agreed with China. There is no published text. The chattering classes are playing “what if…”. My shaming realisation is that, given the consistent deceit of our White House, my inclination is to disbelieve any claims they may make. And no one is crying foul!
So what is the best that can be said:
- there is probably a moratorium on further tariffs, but don’t bet on it.
- there is no truly coherent support for further capex, R&D, or other collaborative efforts to grow the economies involved and make up the losses.
- but there is an open door for further escalation, moral grandstanding, and meaningless agreements as dictated by the whim of the election.
The only claim made so far is that China will buy $billions of food more than it could ever want from, or be supplied by US farmers.
Expect a steady unravelling of the fabric of this agreement. Expect a similar testy series of disagreements around earlier trade “triumphs” with Mexico, Canada and other friends. Expect the US to be disrgarded increasingly by emerging trade blocs around the world.
And reflect that a massive problem associated with the current populist dumbing down is that most of the electorate does not care! They do not read serious newspapers, have no interest in foreign policy, and will mindlessly follow the next simplistic slogan or tweet – and yet they have a vote.
We have become the superpower without a brain.
Have a good day, James